About That Surprisingly Strong Jobs Report: 3.30% Growth In Jobs Added On YoY Basis As Fed Slow Walks Shrinking Balance Sheet (Negative REAL Hourly Earnings Growth Not Something To Brag About)
US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts To -82 Basis Points, Worst Since 1981 As Fed Tightens Policy (112 Straight Days Of Inversion)
Bad Sign! What Interest Rates Are Telling Us (US 10Y-2Y Curve Inverts To -80 Basis Points, Euro 10Y Yields Falling, Fed Funds Rate Priced At 2.301% By January 2024)
Friendly reminder to all you bulls out there. On an inflation-adjusted basis, it took the S&P500 almost 30 years to match its 1929 peak, 25 years to match its 1968 peak, and 15 years to match its 2000 peak. Good luck.
The 2Y is approaching 4% the fed fund rate is down at 2.33%. The discussion is a 50 basis-point or another 75 basis-point hike. 100 basis-point hike could spook the market. 2.5% almost crashed the market in 18/19. Buckle up
On an Emerging Markets basis this current set-up makes BOTH the 2015 and 2018 pivot scenarios look like a picnic. Which means that the binary “pivot” trigger of global market crash is closer than ever
