What’s really coming in AI and how will it affect humanity?
“Artificial intelligence will reach human levels by around 2029. Follow that out further to, say, 2045, and we will have multiplied the intelligence – the human biological machine intelligence of our civilization – a billion-fold.” ~
Image by Comfreak from Pixabay“I’m going to go out on a limb here and say no,” said Peter Diamandis, founder, and chairman of the X Prize Foundation.
“Because there’s no point in migrating over to autonomous vehicles and having only a fraction of the population, say 10 percent, be able to use those vehicles.”
“If we take this technology and create a fleet of self-driving cars that can move around … we could move probably nine out of every 10 people to essentially work where they want when they want.”
“And that leaves one percent of the population that would be unable to find jobs,” he said. “If we think about how much money is created by employment — employment taxes, income taxes, sales taxes — it’s huge.”
Diamandis argued that if automation is handled correctly, it could not only make life better for people who would otherwise be out of work but provide more jobs and increased incomes as well.
“We’re going to have all the benefits that we have today plus a whole lot more,” he said. “People are going to be able to pursue their passions — they’re going to be able to spend more time with their kids, they’re going to be able to volunteer and work in causes they care about.”
“I think we’ll see the biggest explosion of human potential ever,” he said.
Diamandis predicted that once most people go through training for new kinds of jobs, the move toward widespread automation will actually lead to a more equitable society.
“Once those jobs are available, then we’re going to see, I predict, the largest equalization of income ever as well because anyone who wants to acquire these skills will be able to,” he said. “If you want your children to have these kinds of opportunities and you want them not to spend their life in a factory job, now is the time to start learning those skills.”
“The question will be whether we as a society have the foresight and wisdom to manage that transition well,” he said. “I think this is going to redefine what it means to be a human being on planet Earth.”
Ray Kurzweil, the American inventor, and futurist agreed with Diamandis, saying he sees the revolution in automation leading to “better lives for people.”
“Ultimately it doesn’t matter if jobs are eliminated or not,” he said. “The thing that matters is whether people have enough wealth and resources to live a life that’s worth living. … I think most people would prefer to be healthy and happy and enjoy their friends and family rather than be stuck in a dirty job. I think we’re going to see that play out, and the result of it will actually be far more wealth for everyone.”
Kurzweil predicted that as technology continues to develop at an exponential rate, “it’s going to be very easy for us” to live healthy and fulfilling lives.
“As we get to a more mature phase of nanotechnology and biotechnology, we’ll be able to design what we regard as improved human bodies,” he said. “We’re going to add more and more functionality that is nonbiological — both in the body and outside the body.”
“The nonbiological part will allow us to do things like creating additional memory in the cloud, so we can actually speed our thinking up,” he said. “The body is limited by the power of the chemical reactions in our cells and neurons and the speed there.”
“We’ll be able to add more and more capability,” Kurzweil continued. “I think this is going to be a very profound century.”
Diamandis added that he thinks some of the changes will take place on a much shorter timescale.
“We’re living in an era now where change is happening exponentially,” he said. “We’ll have more change in the next 30 years than we had in the last 5,000 years combined.”
“In the next 20 years we’re going to be printing out replacement organs using 3-D printers,” he continued. “We’re going to eliminate infectious disease, cancer, and heart disease as we know it today.”
“It’s really a question of what pace do you want that to happen?” he asked. “Do you want it to happen quickly? Do you want to enjoy your grandchildren watching this happen, or do you want it to take 100 years?”
Kurzweil said he doesn’t think there’s any downside to the increased speed of technological advancement.
“It’s like turning a dial,” he said. “We’re turning the dial way up on human intelligence. So we’re going to be able to address these problems in ways that really are transformative, and there’s no downside I can see.”
“Will this take 100 years? No,” he said. “It will happen far faster than people realize because the power of exponential growth is at its beginning.”
Kurzweil added that he thinks there’s a limit to life expectancy.
“I don’t think you’re going to live forever,” he said. “But I do believe your children and my grandchildren will live indefinitely.”
In conclusion, there is both a negative and positive side to the advent of AI technology.
It could be detrimental for industries such as housing and healthcare because people will no longer need those services or won’t have the money to pay for them anymore. At the same time, however, it can also benefit a lot of people by taking care of tasks that people just don’t have the time to do or are not skilled enough to do.
As a result, it is important that we sit down and come up with a system in order to balance out the distribution of wealth so that everyone can benefit from this technology. If we ensure that each person gains something from the advent of AI, then we will all be a lot better off.
The future of AI is coming whether you like it or not, so it’s important that we have a plan in place to ensure that everyone benefits.
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