Political Horse Race: Say Goodbye to the Popular Vote

Political Horse Race: Say Goodbye to the Popular Vote

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Political Horse Race: Say Goodbye to the Popular Vote

The Candidates’ Market Report

Both Rasmussen and Gallup give President Donald Trump a 49% approval rating, suggesting that the incumbent is weathering the Coronavirus storm fairly well. When compared with other polling that shows only 54% of Democratic voters want Joe Biden to be the party’s nominee, it could spell doom for those hoping to oust Trump from the White House.

Although Donald Trump is still leading the pack in terms of betting odds to win the presidency, it is in the details where we find the Devil. The odds show that whoever the Democratic nominee eventually is, he or she will win the popular vote, 1/4 compared with Trump’s 11/4 … This figure hasn’t changed for quite a while. However, the presidency is not won or lost on the number of voters, but rather by the Electoral College votes, and it is here that we have the best indicator of who will be president next January.

While the coastal states are home to a vast number of Americans, the very purpose of the Electoral College was to stop one densely populated state holding undue influence. To win the presidency, a candidate needs to have appeal across the entire country; something that Biden seems to be lacking. A recent CNN poll that looked not only nationally but also at battleground states, gave Biden the overall win (to be expected), but Trump a commanding lead in the swing states.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

  • Donald Trump – 49% ( no change )
  • Congress – 24% ( – 1% )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

  • Joe Biden – 1/8
  • Hillary Clinton – 8/1
  • Andrew Cuomo – 25/1
  • Michelle Obama – 33/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 40/1
  • Kamala Harris – 75/1

The numbers for Democratic nominee haven’t changed a single point this week. This suggests one of two things. Either cash bettors are confident in their bets or the race is failing to raise any excitement. It’s likely that with the Milwaukee convention postponed to August, we will not see much movement in these odds unless something major happens to the leading candidate. And there are certainly enough scandals circulating.

Tara Reade’s accusations aren’t going away, Biden’s request to unmask Michael Flynn is just about to boil over into public perception, and if the Coronavirus lockdown eases up anytime soon, Uncle Joe will have to hit the campaign trail … a serious issue when you are your own worst enemy. Any one of these hot topics could force Biden to step down; if the Trump campaign can get a coherent message out on all three, it could seriously upset the apple cart.

The closer we get to the convention, the more likely Kamala Harris will be picked as Biden’s running mate. Harris has fractionally extended her lead while Elizabeth Warren has dropped a point and a half. Michelle Obama has dropped two points, but the biggest loser appears to be Stacey Abrams, who despite fawning media attention has slumped a further four points to 14/1.

Biden’s Running Mate

  • Kamala Harris – 6/4
  • Amy Klobuchar – 4/1
  • Elizabeth Warren – 6/1
  • Gretchen Whitmer – 9/1
  • Michelle Obama – 10/1
  • Stacey Abrams – 14/1

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation’s Tim Donner puts it:

“Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in ’16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling – both swing states Trump lost in ’16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now.”

  • Florida: Democrats – 4/6; Republicans – Even
  • Arizona: Democrats – 4/7; Republicans – 11/10
  • Michigan: Democrats – 1/3; Republicans – 15/8
  • Wisconsin: Democrats – 4/7; Republicans – 11/10 

Primary Races

The Democratic National Convention has been postponed and is expected to begin on August 17.

Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.

Presidential Election:

  • Donald Trump – 10/11
  • Joe Biden – 6/5
  • Hillary Clinton – 20/1
  • Andrew Cuomo – 35/1
  • Jesse Ventura – 35/1
  • Justin Amash – 50/1
  • Mike Pence – 50/1
  • Michelle Obama – 50/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 80/1

No changes at all in the betting odds for the White House. Trump remains the favorite, closely followed by Joe Biden, with no one else even realistically in the running. The CNN polling last week that focused on “Battleground States” gave Trump a convincing 52% to 45% over Biden. Trump was favored by almost all categories, including the all-important Independents.

This week also saw two major Republican victories in congressional races. In California’s 25th District, Republican Mike Garcia flipped the blue seat red – the first time this has happened in California since 1998.

National polling and how it is being spun also tells us something interesting. Biden is ahead six points in Pennsylvania, three points in Florida, and eight in Michigan. These are all places that Trump will need to carry to have any hope of a second term. But did we all forget about 2016? Polling in the run up to the Trump/Clinton battle showed Hillary with a lead of 14, 14, and 17 respectively – Trump won all three.

Donald Trump and the Electoral College:

Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump

  • 251 – 269 =  4/1
  • 270 – 275 = 11/2
  • 276 – 280 = 5/1
  • 281 – 290 = 13/2
  • 291 – 300 = 6/1
  • 301 – 315 = 6/1
  • 316 – 330 = 7/1
  • 331 – 350 = 12/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~

Read more from Mark Angelides.

For home study students and young people, Liberty Nation recommends…

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High School: White House Acts on Coronavirus

Middle School: Trump Takes Action on Coronavirus

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High School: The Primary and Caucus Process Explained

Middle School: The Primary and Caucus Process

Elementary School: Primaries and Caucuses: How Do They Work?

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