You are currently viewing March Payrolls Miss: Fewest Jobs Added Since September, But Wages Come In Hot

March Payrolls Miss: Fewest Jobs Added Since September, But Wages Come In Hot

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In our NFP preview we said that only a catastrophic March jobs report coupled with even more negative data could shake the Fed’s determination to pursue a 50bps rate hike in May. Which is why despite a modest miss in the just reported March jobs data, we fail to see anything remotely ugly enough to change the big picture which sees the Fed continuing its liftoff as planned, with a 50bps hike next month.

Here’s what the BLS reported moments ago:

March Nonfarm Payrolls rose 431K and below the exp. 490K. This was also the lowest jobs increase since last September. However, the ~60K miss was more than offset by a 72K upward revision to February and a total 95K revision to the past two months: The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 23,000, from +481,000 to +504,000, and the change for February was revised up by 72,000, from +678,000 to +750,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 95,000 higher than previously reported.Sectors that led payroll growth: leisure and hospitality, professional/business services, retail and manufacturing.Overall, job growth averaged 562,000 per month in the first quarter of 2022, the same as the average monthly gain for 2021.Employment is down by 1.6 million, or 1.0 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020The establishment survey was strong; the Household survey was even stronger with the number of employed workers soaring by 736K in March to 158.458 million.March Unemployment Rate Falls to 3.6% from 3.8%, below the exp. of 3.7% Underemployment Rate 6.9%, down from 7.2%Labor Participation Rate 62.4%, in line with exp. 62.4%, and above the 62.3% lastMarch Average Hourly Earnings Rise 0.4% M/M; Est. 0.4%, and up from an upward revised 0.1% in Feb; March Average Hourly Earnings rose 5.6% vs Year Ago, higher than the est 5.5%Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.6, down from 34.7, and below the exp. 34.7

And visually:

As Miller Tabak’s Matt Maley summarizes the report “The payroll number was slightly lower, but that was

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