Political Horse Race: Whack-a-Mole Polling in Election 2020

Please respect our republishing guidelines - Click Here The Candidates’ Market Report The much-touted figure that comes out of the sheer mass of electoral polling is the “average of polls.” This number, presently +7.5% in favor of Joe Biden, is heard on airwaves across the nation with the added note that “this is a higher average lead than Hillary Clinton had in 2016.” By using the addendum, it appears that media pundits are trying to paint a picture of success for the challenger. But there is more to this than meets the eye. If one follows all the polls and dissects the numbers, what you find is that each time a poll comes in that shows a reduced lead for Biden, almost immediately, another poll comes out that has him with a stupendous (and frankly unrealistic) lead. For example, when Rasmussen released a poll giving Biden just a 2% advantage (2,500 likely voters with a 2% margin of error), another outfit quickly released a poll showing Biden with a 12% lead; however, this included only 823 likely voters with a 3.9% margin of error. Clearly, some polls are more equal than others. This is a pattern we see often replicated. It’s almost as if certain polling outfits are trying to maintain the “average of polls” lead by presenting unworthy data (larger margins of error, small sample sizes). As Christopher Hitchens wrote: “Opinion polling was born out of a struggle not to discover the public mind but to master it.” This Week’s Major Players Approval Ratings: Donald Trump – 51% ( + 3% ) Congress – 17% ( – 1% ) Senate Map: When it comes to presidential elections, the shape of the next Senate is often overlooked. Here’s a round-up of what the polls are saying right now: Republicans: 46 Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 46 Toss Up: 8 The states that are a toss-up include Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Of these, the latest polling indicates that each party will win four states. What the Gamblers Say As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events. Swing State Odds Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. Florida Democrats – 10/11 Republicans – 10/11 Texas Republicans – 1/4 Democrats – 5/2 Arizona Democrats – 8/13 Republicans – 6/5 Colorado Democrats – 1/8 Republicans – 9/2 Georgia Republicans – 4/11 Democrats – 15/8 Iowa Republicans – 4/11 Democrats – 15/8 Maine Democrats – 2/9 Republicans – 11/4 Michigan Democrats – 3/10 Republicans – 11/5 North Carolina Republicans – 4/5 Democrats – 10/11 Ohio Republicans – 8/15 Democrats – 11/8 Pennsylvania Democrats – 8/15 Republicans – 11/8 Presidential Election: Joe Biden – 4/5 Donald Trump – 11/10 Kamala Harris – 66/1 Hillary Clinton – 150/1 Mike Pence – 175/1 Michelle Obama – 250/1 Kanye West – 500/1 Bernie Sanders – no odds under 500/1 The Electoral College betting is a major center for action right now. With Biden officially having the Democrat nomination, cash bettors have started placing wagers on his EC success. While almost all polling shows that Biden will win the popular vote (because that is what polling counts), the votes from individual states are what decide the presidency … and here, it is a closely run race. Both Trump and Biden are at 5/1 to win the minimum number of EC votes (270). They are also just as likely as each other to win between 300 and 329 votes. It is not until the 330 to 359 vote range that Biden makes any gains, showing 5/1 against Donald Trump on 6/1. Is it likely that polling is impacting the betting markets? Donald Trump and the Electoral College: Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump: 270 – 299 = 5/1 300 – 329 = 5/1 180 – 209 = 11/2 210 – 239 = 11/2 330 – 359 = 6/1 Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count. ~ Read more from Mark Angelides.

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Can Pro Sports Survive The Great Awokening?

Imagine for a moment that you are the head of a company that saw its primary product’s popularity sink among Republicans and Independents by 46 and 36 points respectively in the space of a year. I don’t care what the product is. It could be a bar of soap. As a capitalist, you’d have some questions. You’d be open to ideas about what you did wrong. You’d consider all the possibilities. You certainly wouldn’t reject it as out of touch or imply that it’s racist to suggest your affiliation with a radical race-focused agenda was the issue involved. But then you wouldn’t be billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban, famous for Shark Tank, owning the Dallas Mavericks, and as a dude who should probably slow his roll on fillers. Last night he got into it in a lengthy argument with Townhall’s Guy Benson over a new Gallup poll, which illustrates in shocking detail the challenge facing pro sports in the era of the Great Awokening. Well, I disagree strongly with them. And I do have a problem with calling police pigs & the country racist. I also believe he has the right to say whatever he wants (🇺🇸). I have learned from some blm advocates — while also not being terribly interested in “learning” from Kaep. https://t.co/sql0nJBnkj — Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 12, 2020 As Tristan Justice writes: According to Gallup, the sports industry now boasts a negative image among U.S. adults: 30 percent see the sports industry positively, compared to 40 percent reporting a negative image. This year’s survey illustrates a 30 percent decline from American views on the sports industry a year ago, when the corporate sports enjoyed a net positive 20 percent rating, with 45 percent of Americans reporting a favorable opinion compared to 25 percent who said otherwise.The data comes at a particularly tumultuous time for the industry facing headwinds on multiple fronts, from rebelling teams and players protesting police use of force on those resisting arrest to schedule irregularities this year as leagues struggle to circumvent challenges presented by the Wuhan coronavirus.Gallup shows sports favorability among Republicans sinking overwhelmingly in comparison to Democrats, with a 46 percent drop in a positive outlook among Republicans whereas Democrats only saw a 5 percent drop in their favorability towards corporate sports in the last year. Perhaps even more troublesome for owners who feel this is just white conservatives being resistant to change, the drop was even bigger among non-whites – a 35-point negative swing versus 26 points, perhaps indicating that woke white Democrats are totally down with the wokeness. As I wrote last month, the real problem facing pro sports is that they’re engaging in this behavior not at the behest of their fans, but at the behest of the overwhelmingly leftist (and white) corporate media that covers them. Most fans watch sports out of allegiance and a desire to be entertained. The more this entertainment is interrupted by political posturing, the more people will tune out and find different entertainment. According to internal analysis shared with me about the NFL’s performance, they found fans don’t typically drop away entirely – they just watch fewer games. Instead of watching their own team and a bunch of other games every Sunday, they shrink back to watching just the team they care the most about. The NFL’s plan to squelch all of this is to show the National Anthem on the first weekend of games then not show it at all, so the performative kneeling and the like will become moot. But Cuban’s willingness to engage in a blatant public performance which pretends as if a 46-point drop among Republicans and a 36-point drop among Independents is just noise is a sign of how much corporate owners are willing to engage in gaslighting in order to avoid a hard question about the downsides of what they’re doing.

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